唐石峻财富体验 #12 -如何把握非凡的投资机会

个股财报分析

14 Apr

Written By 唐石峻

2024年4月14日 | 唐石峻

如何把握非凡的投资机会

PS:English Version Below

价值投资人：投资圈的异类

非凡的投资机会

肯定不会是满大街大家都在谈论的

为什么 META 88一股的时候，你没有听朋友提到它

为什么 MU 48一股的时候，你没有在吃饭的时候聊到它

为什么你只会听到买英伟达974一股，买比特币7万一枚，抄底特斯拉180一股

等一下，有一个创作者在 X 和 Youtube 上一直在提 META 和 MU

但是，这个创作者，遵循的价值投资理念属于投资界异类

用李录的话说，价值投资人属于DNA变异人士

你想想，如果市场中全是价值投资人，股价还会有波动么？

答案是，不会，市场将会不存在任何流动性

不过，你也不用担心，因为现今股市比原来更像一个赌场

原来买股票还是有门槛的

20年前，买股票，你还得打电话给broker，支付昂贵的交易费

而现在，0交易费，零碎股，手机APP，期权交易，期货交易，CFD差价合约交易等等玩法，虽然拉近了股市与普通大众的距离

但是，也更加刺激了市场中投机的心理

如今的股市，经常会像一个仍性的，喜怒无常的小孩

查理芒格在生前最后一次伯克希尔股东大会上曾提到

“价值投资人，在如今的市场情形下，机会会越来越少”

虽然他是我的英雄，我的投资哲学基本上是遵循查理芒格的教导

但是，在这一点上，我并不同意

价值投资人之所以能赚到钱，本质上，是利用市场情绪的起伏，把握住市场严重错误定价的机遇

从这一点出发，反而现在的市场中，这种机会会更多

META短时间内巨大的波动，就充分说明了这一点，试想这么大的公司，以Trillion为单位，都可以为市场情绪所影响

还有哪只股票能幸免呢？

想要把握非凡的投资回报，你要做的，是做好准备，等待市场展现它喜怒无常的一面

利用市场错误的定价，买入一家你一早就想买的公司股票

任何股票，反映的都是未来现金流现在的价值

市场长期来看，是一台称重机

短期错误的定价

迟早市场会自行纠正

作为散户的你，这是你把握住非凡的投资机会，唯一方法

价值投资的逻辑很简单

用合理的价格买一家好公司，坐在你的屁股上等就行了

但是，当你遇到机遇

你怎么知道这家公司的股价是被市场错误的定价

而不是要破产归零？

其实作为价值投资人

这是你一辈子的课题

谁都不能100%保证一个投资一定能成功

你要意识到，每个投资决定，都只是一个概率的游戏

你的经验越丰富，知识体系约完善，投资成功的概率越大

如果你是刚开始投资的新手

你的侧重点应该放在学习和实践上

能力圈

想要通过投资赚到钱

永远都不要冒永久损失你本金的风险

想做到这一点，首先，你得搭建你的能力圈，这是散户和华尔街相比最大的优势

因为每个人的能力圈都是独一无二的

问题来了，究竟什么是能力圈呢？

能力圈说白了，就是说

你是否了解这家公司？
你有没有使用公司的产品和服务？
你有没有想尝试公司产品和服务的欲望？
你知道这家公司的业务模型么？

建立能力圈，是投资任何一家公司的起点

你投资一家公司，是因为你了解它，你听说过它的产品和服务，想在未来尝试，或者你正在使用它的产品和服务

举几个子，你可能使用苹果手机，或者安卓手机

你喜欢穿的衣服品牌

你喜欢用的化妆品牌

再或者，你用什么牌子的牙膏，用哪家的电脑

假如你很喜欢一家公司的产品服务

再问自己，这个公司是怎么赚钱的？它的业务模型你能搞明白么？

只要你可以回答上面这2个问题，便代表着，这家公司属于你能力圈范围内的公司

我曾经无数次和朋友谈论一家公司的股票

每当我问他们，这家公司怎么赚钱的呀？

让我震惊的是，绝大多数人，虽然买了一家公司的股票，但是这么简单的问题都答不上来

如果你有想买一家公司股票的欲望

第一件事情，就是研究这家公司的业务模型，搞清楚，它究竟是怎么赚钱的

搞清楚这点，你只需要回顾1-2个过往的财报（Earnings Report）

绝大部门的公司都会把业务模型清晰的展现在财报中

如果你发现，公司的财报晦涩难懂，对其业务模型遮遮掩掩

这个时候，也可以从侧面看出，这家公司的管理层有意隐瞒公司差劲的表现

记住

永远都待在能力圈的中心，连边上都别去

做一个多面手

Be a Generalist

不要故步自封

慢慢扩展自己的能力圈

工作中，很多时候要求你很专精

讲究的是在你所属领域做到最好

做一个Specialist，这样你可以考着这个技能搞到钱

而投资股市，却恰恰相反

如果你只停留在熟悉的行业和公司，不思进取，故步自封

你的能力圈将会非常窄

你能把握的机会也非常少

只有不断通过学习，完善你的投资知识体系，才能逐渐了解不同的行业，扩大你的能力圈

能力圈的边际不断扩大，处在你能力圈中心的公司才会增加

机会来临的时候，你才能把握住

你才有资格讨论机会成本

不要总等错过机会之后，再来抱怨别人，抱怨社会的不公

想想被你肆意浪费的生命

扩展你的能力圈，其实不难

你需要做到，不断学习不同行业的公司

如果遇到你能搞明白的公司，nice，加入到你的能力圈

如果遇到你搞不明白的公司，doesnt matter，直接摒弃掉

可能你目前的知识不够，没法理解，也有可能你没有获取到理解这家公司的关键信息

不用过于纠结，觉得太难了，就先不管了

可能随着你的经验和知识的累积，回过头来看，你能搞清楚了

这个时候，再把它加回来

这是一个永不停止的过程

学习是一辈子的事

学习也是你存在的意义，因为你这辈子不是永恒的，但是你获取的知识，你的认知，可以通过别的形式传承下去

不要像大多数人，大学毕业后，就已经“死”了

技术面意义不大

少看图，多研究公司的基本面

不要上来就钻研图形，尝试预测未来

这样做，只会让你和现实脱轨

很多新手投资人，上手就投入到了图形技术面研究中

努力钻研Price Action，以及各种indicator，各种画图预测未来

你没有感觉到和现实脱节么？

市场虽然长期来说是一台称重机，但是短期内，市场是一台投票机器，市场反映的，仅仅是市场参与者的情绪

你买股票，不是买了一串屏幕上的代码，更不是买了一张价格图形

你买的，是一个现实世界中，实实在在存在的公司

这个公司从上到下，都在为你打工

你不觉得应该多花时间研究这家公司的业务么？

投资股市，其实逻辑特别简单

你买一家好公司的股票，这个公司业务在未来越做越好，所以股价也会随着上涨，股价上涨了，你也就赚钱了

虽然逻辑很简单，实际操作起来是很繁琐的

-价格很重要

世界上好公司随便一抓一大把

难道我随便买这些市值最大的公司就能赚大钱？

当然不是，投资任何一家公司，你都是投资了这个公司未来现金流贴现到现在的价值

学会分析股票内在价值，是你的必修课

-护城河

公司护城河是投资决策中最需要考虑的

因为只有护城河又宽又深的公司，才能在未来股价一直涨

不然，随随便便给一个新人就能干翻的公司，谈何未来呢？

-公司业务效率

有的公司忙了大半天，利润率才个位数

有的公司虽然总营收不高，但是实际上赚的比谁都多

你得学会如何分析一个公司的财报数据，得出公司经营业务是否有效率

你需要考虑的因素还有很多

不管哪一条，都比你每天研究图形强无数倍

不要尝试择时，高抛低吸

不要尝试高抛低吸

股市不会从右往左走

永远都是从左往右走

努力追求高抛低吸，尝试Time The Market的人，往往都是韭菜的主力军

高抛低吸，很长时间以来，一直是投资人们信奉的准则

你打开任何一只股票的图形

从右往左看，人人都是诸葛亮，什么时候“低吸”，什么时候“高抛”，一目了然

可惜股市不是从右往左走，而是从左往右走

努力追求高抛低吸，尝试Time The Market的人，往往都是韭菜的主力军

没有人能预测未来

如果你有预测未来的能力，你也不会干投资，直接记下乐透开奖序列不就行了么

你在社交平台上刷到那些喊单的

在图形上预测走势的

一定要注意他们的措词

如果他们拍着胸脯和你保证一支股票，100%能涨到多少多少

一定要警惕，因为他们100%是在忽悠人，因为没人可以预测未来市场走势

最近在油管上刷到一个up主

得谁呛谁，而且老喊单，还说1年之后见分晓

这种人一定要远离，他要么是盲目自信，要么是心眼真坏

有比高抛低吸更好的投资策略么？

当然有，我认为，只要是经过市场考验的投资策略

一定会比尝试择时强上百倍

比如价值投资，虽然很多现代投资人对价值投资嗤之以鼻，认为价值投资人都是老古董，所谓价值投资，应该被叫成“踏空投资”

但是以巴菲特为首的一众超级价值投资人们的履历就摆在那

根本就不用辩解，也不用反驳，因为他们的履历太高，太大，这些讥讽的声音相比起来，太小，太小，小到完全消失在这些履历的影子中

价值投资人，只不过是主动选择放弃一些不在认知范围内的机会而已，不在认知范围内，就不存在机会成本，更不存在FOMO

很多时候，真正有效的投资策略，简单到你会觉得不真实

事实上，越是简单，越能赚到钱

不要加杠杆

你不需要钱的时候，大家都会借你

等你真的需要钱的时候，没人会借钱给你

每当牛市来临，很多人就会想到利用杠杆在股市中搞钱

所谓有需求，就有供给，你根本想象不到现如今有多少种加杠杆的玩法

银行和做市商们都会向你伸出援助之手

比如很多人会把放贷重组一下，套现一大笔钱出来

更有胜者，直接把房产做抵押贷款来股市里寻求一夜暴富的机遇

这还只是低级的玩法

现今的市场中，做市商们，可谓是绞尽脑汁, 来满足你的欲望

比如很多券商提供保证金交易，Margin Trading，给你2倍甚至更高的杠杆，增加你的购买力，“放大”你的收益

再就是各种金融衍生品

比如最典型的期权交易和期货交易，虽然灵活性较高，但是也可以无限放大你的风险

接下来，基金提供商们也坐不住了，不能光给你们券商把钱赚走了，于是他们开始推出带杠杆的ETF，主打一个玩的就是刺激

最后，还有CFD差价合约交易，这是杠杆可以打非常高的交易，有的券商甚至提供几百倍的杠杆

我曾今实操过2年的差价合约交易

2年间我交易了800多次实战交易

我的交易账户是30倍杠杆

2年间，虽然我成为一个盈利的交易人

但是我却放弃了

因为我发现了一个道理

不管做任何交易，上面我提到的所有，都是一个搞钱的手段，而不是在做投资

这和你找一份工作上班，做生意，没有区别

投资和搞钱，是两个概念

投资不需要你时时刻刻盯着股市，一个星期，最多花2个小时研究下股票就行了

甚至于，如果你选择懒人躺赢的投资策略，你一个星期，一分钟都不需要花在投资上

真正非凡的投资，都是坐在你的屁股上等来的

而在等的过程中，假如你加了杠杆，大概率你是等不起的

可能股票刚开始跌，你已经爆仓了

永远记住，当你不需要钱的时候，大家会抢着借钱给你

当你真正需要钱的时候，没人会理你

专注投资心理学

正确理解机会成本

用实战经验杜绝FOMO

用策略战胜你的情绪

绝大多数投资人对牛市抱有极大的热诚，而对熊市敬而远之

而非凡的投资机会，往往都存在于熊市中

这是你将要一次又一次经历的循环

投资，虽然感觉是多空双方的博弈，同时也是公司长期基本面发展，以及市场认可一家公司的过程

但是，对于投资人而言，其实90%都是心理学

行为差距，决定了市场参与者的回报差距

而行为差距的背后，其实是投资心理学在作祟

想要在股市中赚到钱，你的第一个课题，是学习投资心理学

-正确理解机会成本

我们在大学学习的机会成本概念，是有瑕疵的

举个例子，我在15年的时候投资了一套公寓，按照机会成本的概念，如果那个时候，我投资特斯拉，或者我买比特币，这个机会成本就大了去了

因为无论特斯拉还是比特币这些年的回报都非常高

如果你这么理解机会成本的话，你是在给自己找罪受，你将一直活在悔恨中

机会成本的前提，是建立在你的认知范围内的

除非我2015年的时候就已经把特斯拉和比特币研究透彻了，我仔细分析之后，才选择了投资公寓

这种情况下，特斯拉和比特币的回报，才构成我的机会成本

-FOMO

Fear of Missing Out，害怕被落下

这将会是伴随你整个投资生涯的一点

你可能觉得你经得起诱惑，这可能是金额还不够大，还不够让你动容

你的投资理念，将会在未来不断的被挑战，被质疑

而抵御FOMO的诱惑，唯一的方法就是实战经验

你从来没有被打过脸，你怎么可能顶得住？

-情绪管理

这一点经常被投资人忽略

很多人之所以会情绪失控，做出错误的投资决定

其实本质上的原因，是你驾驭不了投资的金额，没有做好风险管理

做一个”抄袭者”

Be a Copycat

找一个你欣赏的投资人，学习他的投资策略

等你通过实战，总结了自己的经验之后，再调整修改，建立自己的投资策略

作为新手的你，面对陌生，而又充满风险的股市，一套策略仅仅只是你的开始，接下来才是关键

首先，你要明白，“抄袭”一套靠谱的投资策略，尤为关键！

因为至少，你可以保证策略本身是靠谱的，剩下的，只是你人为的因素

你一定会犯很多错误

所以刚开始的时候，不要用很大的本金

永远都不要相信新手运气这种说法

你听听乐呵就行了，千万别当真

即便你听说谁刚开始就赚了很多钱，这也只是极个别的偶然现象

如果这个人没有一套完整的投资体系，被市场打脸是迟早的事情

俗话说，出来混，迟早要还的

这一点，绝对是永恒的真理

著名投资人 Mohnish Pabrai 曾经有一笔投资直接归零

当年，他投资了一家名为DITECH NETWORKS的公司

这家公司从事语音识别通讯技术的开发，一度被认为具有潜力

然而，随着市场竞争的加剧和技术的迅速变化，DITECH 的业务开始衰退，最终这笔投资归零

在Mohnish接受采访的时候，记者问他投资归零是什么感受

他却说，如果再遇到这种投资机会，他仍然会毫不犹豫的选择投资

Mohnish之所以会这么说

是因为他理解投资这个游戏的真谛

做任何投资，你都是在玩一个概率的游戏，不可能每一笔投资都能创造非凡的回报

你也不需要每笔投资都成功

但是，你要确保你的投资策略，在长时间内，只要你能完美的执行，获取非凡的回报，只是时间问题

Mohnish他明白，当符合投资策略的机会来临的时候，他只需要执行就行了

剩下的，策略本身就会打点一切

当你累积了经验之后，自然你会对策略进行调整，创造一套属于你自己的投资策略

APR 14 2024 | Shijun Tang

How to seize exceptional investment opportunities

Value Investors: The Odd Ones Out in the Investment Circle

Exceptional Investment Opportunities

Certainly won't be the ones everyone is talking about on the streets

Why didn't you hear about META when it was at $88 per share from your friends?

Why didn't MU come up at $48 per share during dinner conversations?

Why do you only hear about buying NVIDIA at $974 per share, buying Bitcoin at $70,000 each, or bottom-fishing Tesla at $180 per share?

Wait a minute, there's a creator on X and YouTube who keeps mentioning META and MU

However, this creator, who follows the philosophy of value investing, is considered an oddity in the investment world

As Li Lu would say, value investors are like people with a DNA mutation

Think about it, if everyone in the market were a value investor, would there still be fluctuations in stock prices?

The answer is no, there would be no liquidity in the market at all.

But, you don't have to worry, because today's stock market resembles a casino more than ever before.

It used to be that there were barriers to buying stocks.

20 years ago, you had to call a broker and pay expensive trading fees to buy stocks.

Now, with zero transaction fees, fractional shares, mobile apps, options trading, futures trading, CFD trading, and more, the stock market has become more accessible to the general public.

However, it has also stimulated speculative psychology in the market.

Today's stock market often behaves like a capricious, temperamental child.

Charlie Munger once mentioned at his last Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting before he passed away:

"Value investors, in today's market conditions, will have fewer and fewer opportunities."

Although he is my hero and my investment philosophy is largely based on Charlie Munger's teachings, I disagree with him on this point.

The reason value investors can make money is fundamentally because they capitalize on the ups and downs of market sentiment, seizing opportunities when the market severely misprices.

From this perspective, there are actually more such opportunities in today's market.

The substantial fluctuations of META in a short period fully demonstrate this point. Imagine such a large company, valued in the trillions, can still be swayed by market sentiment.

What stock could possibly be exempt?

To grasp exceptional investment returns, what you need to do is be prepared and wait for the market to show its fickle side.

Take advantage of the market's mispricing to buy shares of a company you have long wanted to invest in.

Any stock reflects the present value of future cash flows.

Over the long term, the market is a weighing machine.

Short-term mispricing will eventually be corrected by the market itself.

For retail investors like you, this is the only way to seize exceptional investment opportunities.

The Logic of Value Investing is Simple

Buy a good company at a fair price and just sit on your ass and wait.

But, when you encounter an opportunity,

how do you know if the company's stock price is mispriced by the market or if it is going straight to zero?

As a value investor,

this is your lifelong challenge.

No one can guarantee 100% that an investment will succeed.

You must realize that every investment decision is just a game of probabilities.

The more experience you have and the more complete your knowledge system, the greater the probability of investment success.

If you are a beginner in investing,

your focus should be on learning and practice.

Circle of Competence

If you want to make money through investing

Never risk a permanent loss of your principal

To achieve this, you first need to build your circle of competence, which is the greatest advantage individual investors have over Wall Street

Because everyone's circle of competence is unique

So, what exactly is a circle of competence? It boils down to the following:

Do you understand the company?
Have you used the company’s products or services?
Do you have a desire to try the company's products or services?
Do you understand the business model of the company?

Establishing a circle of competence is the starting point for investing in any company.

You invest in a company because you understand it; you have heard of its products and services, intend to try them in the future, or you are currently using them.

For example, you might use an iPhone or an Android phone. You might have favorite clothing brands, makeup brands, or even a specific brand of toothpaste or computer you prefer.

If you really like a company's products or services, ask yourself, how does this company make money? Do you understand its business model?

If you can answer these two questions, it means that this company is within your circle of competence.

I have discussed stocks with friends countless times. Whenever I ask them how a company makes money, I am shocked that most, although they own the company's stock, cannot answer this simple question.

If you have the desire to buy a company’s stock, the first thing to do is to research the company's business model and understand exactly how it makes money.

To understand this, you only need to review 1-2 past earnings reports.

Most companies will clearly present their business model in their financial reports. If you find that the company's financial reports are obscure and the business model is shrouded in secrecy, it could also indicate that the management is intentionally hiding poor performance.

Remember, always stay at the center of your circle of competence, and don't even go near the edge.

Be a Generalist

Do not confine yourself to what you already know

Gradually expand your circle of competence

In the workplace, you are often required to specialize, aiming to be the best in your field. Being a Specialist allows you to earn money through your expertise.

However, investing in the stock market is quite the opposite. If you only stay within familiar industries and companies without seeking progress and remain complacent, your circle of competence will be very narrow.

The opportunities you can grasp will also be limited.

Only by continuously learning and improving your investment knowledge can you gradually understand different industries and expand your circle of competence.

As the margins of your circle of competence expand, the number of companies at its center will increase.

When opportunities arise, you'll be able to seize them.

Only then are you qualified to discuss opportunity costs.

Don't wait until after you've missed opportunities to complain about others or the unfairness of society.

Consider the life you have recklessly wasted.

Expanding your circle of competence is not difficult.

You need to continually learn about companies across different industries.

If you come across a company you can understand, great, add it to your circle of competence.

If you encounter a company you cannot decipher, no matter, simply discard it.

It might be that your current knowledge is insufficient, or perhaps you lack the key information needed to understand the company.

Don't get too hung up on it feeling too difficult; just set it aside for now.

As you accumulate experience and knowledge, you might look back and understand it better.

At that time, you can add it back. This is an ongoing process.

Learning is a lifelong endeavor.

Learning is also the meaning of your existence because your life is not eternal, but the knowledge you acquire and your understanding can be passed on in other forms.

Do not be like most people who die intellectually after graduating from college.

Technical Analysis is Not Significant

Focus less on charts and more on studying the fundamentals of companies

Don't start by delving into charts and trying to predict the future

Doing this will only disconnect you from reality

Many novice investors dive into technical analysis right away, earnestly studying price action, various indicators, and drawing charts to predict the future.

Don't you feel detached from reality?

Although the market is a weighing machine in the long term, in the short term, it is a voting machine that only reflects the emotions of market participants.

When you buy stocks, you're not just buying a string of codes on a screen, nor are you buying a price chart.

What you are buying is a real company that exists in the real world.

From top to bottom, this company is working for you.

Shouldn't you spend more time researching the business of this company?

Investing in the stock market is actually very simple in logic.

You buy stocks of a good company whose business will improve in the future, and as the business grows, so does the stock price, and you make money.

Although the logic is simple, the actual operation is very cumbersome:

Price is important.

There are plenty of good companies in the world.

Do you think you can make a lot of money just by randomly buying stocks of the largest companies?

Of course not.

Investing in any company means investing in the present value of the company's future cash flows.

Learning to analyze the intrinsic value of stocks is a must for you.

Moats

The moat of a company is the most crucial aspect to consider in investment decisions.

Only companies with wide and deep moats will see their stock prices continually rise in the future.

Otherwise, a company that any newcomer can easily topple has no future.

Business Efficiency

Some companies work all day long and only achieve single-digit profit margins.

Some may not have high total revenue, but in reality, they earn more than anyone else.

You must learn how to analyze a company's financial data to determine whether its operations are efficient.

There are many more factors you need to consider.

Any of these considerations is far more important than spending your days studying charts.

Do Not Attempt to Time the Market with High Sells and Low Buys

Do not attempt to time the market with high sells and low buys

The stock market does not move from right to left but always from left to right

Those who strive to sell high and buy low, trying to time the market

Are often the main force of the inexperienced investors

For a long time, buying low and selling high has been a principle that investors adhere to.

Open any stock chart, and if you look from right to left, everyone seems like a genius, knowing exactly when to 'buy low' and 'sell high.'

Unfortunately, the stock market doesn’t operate from right to left, but from left to right.

Those who try to chase this strategy of selling high and buying low, attempting to time the market, often end up being the inexperienced investors.

No one can predict the future.

If you had the ability to foresee the future, you wouldn't be investing; you'd be jotting down the lottery numbers instead.

Be cautious about those on social platforms who predict trends on charts and shout orders.

Pay attention to their phrasing.

If they confidently guarantee you that a stock will definitely rise to a certain level, be wary, because they are 100% misleading people as no one can predict future market movements.

Recently, I came across a content creator on YouTube who challenges others and often makes bold predictions, saying we'll see who's right in a year.

Such people should be avoided, as they are either blindly confident or genuinely deceitful.

Is there a better investment strategy than trying to buy low and sell high?

Of course, there are strategies that have been tested by the market, which are hundreds of times stronger than attempting to time the market.

For example, value investing.

Although many modern investors scoff at value investing, considering those who practice it as outdated, value investing, sometimes derided as 'missing out investing,' has proven its worth.

Investors like Warren Buffett exemplify this, and their extensive, successful records stand firm against any ridicule.

They simply don’t need to respond because their achievements speak loudly enough.

Value investors simply choose to pass up on opportunities that are outside their circle of competence.

If it's outside their circle of competence, there’s no opportunity cost and certainly no FOMO.

Often, the most effective investment strategies are so simple that they might seem unreal.

In fact, the simpler they are, the more likely they are to make money.

Do Not Use Leverage

When you don't need money, everyone is willing to lend it to you

But when you truly need money, no one will lend it to you

Whenever a bull market arrives, many think of using leverage to make money in the stock market.

Where there is demand, there will be supply, and you cannot imagine how many ways to use leverage exist today.

Banks and market makers will extend a helping hand to you.

For example, many people restructure their loans to cash out a large sum of money.

Others go further, mortgaging their properties to seek a fortune overnight in the stock market.

But these are just basic tactics.

In today's market, market makers are wracking their brains to satisfy your desires.

Many brokers offer margin trading, providing you with 2x or even higher leverage, increasing your buying power and "magnifying" your profits.

Then there are various financial derivatives.

Options and futures trading, for example, offer high flexibility but can also infinitely magnify your risks.

Next, fund providers can't just sit by and let brokers take all the earnings, so they start launching leveraged ETFs, focusing on the thrill of the play.

Finally, there are CFDs (Contracts for Difference), where leverage can be extremely high, with some brokers even offering hundreds of times leverage.

I once actively traded CFDs for two years.

During those two years, I conducted over 800 live trades.

My trading account was leveraged 30 times.

Although I became a profitable trader in those two years, I gave up.

Because I realized the truth.

No matter what trading I did, everything mentioned above was a means to make money, not investing.

This is no different from getting a job or doing business.

Investing and making money are two different concepts.

Investing doesn’t require you to constantly watch the stock market. You might spend a maximum of two hours a week studying stocks.

Even more, if you choose a lazy, lay-back investment strategy, you don’t need to spend a minute a week on investing.

Truly exceptional investments are those you get by just sitting on your ass and waiting.

While waiting, if you use leverage, you probably can’t afford to do so.

You might get a margin call just as stocks start to fall.

Always remember, when you don’t need money, everyone rushes to lend it to you.

But when you really need money, no one will pay attention to you.

Focus on Investment Psychology

Understand opportunity cost correctly

Use real experience to eliminate FOMO

Use strategies to overcome your emotions

Most investors have a great passion for bull markets and steer clear of bear markets.

However, extraordinary investment opportunities often arise during bear markets.

This is a cycle you will experience over and over again.

Investing may feel like a game between bulls and bears, and it's also about a company's long-term fundamental growth and market recognition.

However, for investors, it's actually 90% psychology.

Behavioral gaps determine the differences in returns among market participants, and these gaps are fundamentally driven by investment psychology.

If you want to make money in the stock market, your first lesson should be to learn about investment psychology.

Understanding Opportunity Cost Correctly

The concept of opportunity cost we learn in university is flawed.

For example, in 2015, I invested in an apartment.

According to the concept of opportunity cost, if I had invested in Tesla or bought Bitcoin at that time, the opportunity cost would have been huge, given their returns over the years.

If you understand opportunity cost in this way, you are setting yourself up for suffering and living in regret.

The premise of opportunity cost is based on what is within your range of knowledge.

Unless in 2015 I had thoroughly researched Tesla and Bitcoin and after careful analysis chose to invest in the apartment, only then would the returns from Tesla and Bitcoin constitute my opportunity cost.

FOMO

Fear of Missing Out is something that will accompany you throughout your investment career.

You may think you can resist the temptation, but perhaps the amounts involved have not been significant enough to sway you yet.

Your investment philosophy will continually be challenged and questioned in the future.

The only way to resist the temptation of FOMO is through real experience.

How can you withstand it if you have never been proven wrong?

Emotion Management

This is often overlooked by investors.

Many make poor investment decisions due to loss of emotional control.

Essentially, the reason is that they cannot manage the investment amount and have not implemented proper risk management.

Be a Copycat

Be a copycat

Find an investor you admire and learn from their investment strategy

After gaining real experience and summarizing your own lessons, adjust and modify to create your own investment strategy

As a beginner facing the unfamiliar and risky stock market, having a strategy is just the start; what follows is crucial.

First, you must understand that "copying" a reliable investment strategy is particularly important!

At least you can be sure that the strategy itself is sound; the rest depends on human factors.

You are bound to make many mistakes.

So, in the beginning, do not use a large amount of capital.

Never believe in the notion of 'beginner's luck.'

Just listen to such stories with amusement but do not take them seriously.

Even if you hear about someone making a lot of money right from the start, this is just a rare coincidence.

If this person does not have a complete investment system, facing setbacks from the market is only a matter of time.

As the saying goes, "What goes around, comes around." This is an eternal truth.

Famous investor Mohnish Pabrai once had an investment that went to zero.

He had invested in a company called Ditech Networks, which was involved in the development of voice recognition communication technology and was once considered to have potential.

However, as market competition intensified and technology rapidly changed, Ditech's business began to decline, and ultimately the investment went to zero.

In an interview, when asked about his feelings regarding the investment going to zero, Mohnish said that if he were to encounter such an investment opportunity again, he would still choose to invest without hesitation.

Mohnish says this because he understands the essence of the investment game.

Every investment is a game of probabilities; it’s not possible for every investment to yield extraordinary returns.

Nor do you need every investment to succeed.

However, you must ensure that your investment strategy, if perfectly executed over the long term, is bound to yield extraordinary returns—it's just a matter of time.

Mohnish knows that when an opportunity that fits his investment strategy arises, he just needs to execute.

The rest will be taken care of by the strategy itself.

Once you've accumulated experience, you will naturally adjust and create an investment strategy that is uniquely yours.